I wanted to send a quick update on what’s going on in the housing market right now, because there’s a shift happening that most people aren’t talking about.
Inventory growth is slowing down… fast.
At one point in 2025, inventory was growing around 33% year over year.
Today, that number is closer to 3%.
Here’s a quick visual from HousingWire:
What’s Causing This?
A few key things:
- Mortgage rates have stayed mostly below 7%
- Strong demand is still hanging around
- And most importantly… new listings are coming in lower than expected
New Listings Are Down
We were hoping to see more homes hit the market this year, but that hasn’t happened.
- 2025: ~76,000 new listings
- 2026: ~70,000 new listings
Here’s what that looks like (HousingWire data):
Fewer homes coming to market = slower inventory growth
What About Prices?
About 1 in 3 homes are still seeing price reductions before selling:
- 2025: ~35%
- 2026: ~34%
Slight improvement, but still a very active market.
The Big Takeaway
Here’s what most people are missing: the housing market isn’t crashing…it’s actually starting to tighten back up again.
- Inventory growth is slowing
- New listings are lagging
- Demand is still there (just more rate-sensitive)
What This Means
If this trend continues:
- We could see negative inventory growth year over year
- Competition could increase again
- Prices could stay more stable than expected
My Take
We’re in a market that’s:
- Not booming
- Not crashing
- But definitely shifting
If you’re thinking about buying, a REFI, or just want to understand how these market shifts could impact your situation, feel free to reach out. Happy to walk through your options.
