Housing Data Looks Bad. But Compared to What?
Recently, there’s been a lot of talk about rising delinquencies, foreclosures, and whether the housing market is heading toward another crash.
I lived and worked through the 2008 housing crash, so whenever I hear that comparison, my first question is simple:
What does the data actually say?
Because a number can look bad on its own. What matters is what you compare it to.
Are We Anywhere Close to 2008?
When you look at mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures today versus 2008, there are definitely areas worth watching.
FHA loans currently have the highest delinquency rate by far. Foreclosures have also been moving higher as the market returns to more normal levels after the pandemic.
But here’s the important part.
We are still nowhere near the foreclosure levels we saw during the 2008 housing crisis.
That doesn’t mean everything is perfect. High interest rates are putting pressure on affordability, and conditions can look very different from one market to another.
It just means we need context before calling something a crisis.
Kenny’s Take
I’d be careful with anyone telling you the housing market is about to crash based on one scary headline or one piece of data.
Markets change. Delinquencies change. Foreclosures change. Home prices change.
The trend matters, but so does the starting point.
I’d rather watch the actual numbers and adjust as they change than make predictions based on what I think should happen.
The Bottom Line
There are signs of stress in parts of the housing market, and they’re worth watching.
But comparing 2026 directly to 2008 without looking at the data doesn’t tell the full story.
We’ll keep watching the numbers and reporting on what’s actually happening.
