Now, as 2025 comes into view, there’s a question buzzing through the industry: Are we finally heading back to a “normal” housing market?
As a 20-year veteran in the mortgage game, I’ve seen it all—booms, busts, and everything in between. Now, as 2025 comes into view, there’s a question buzzing through the industry: Are we finally heading back to a “normal” housing market?
Let’s talk about it.
We’ve been in a housing market recession for as long as we rode the pandemic boom—about two and a half years. But signs of change are stirring. Buyers seem more ready to act, maybe inspired by post-election clarity. Inventory is growing, sales are inching up, and, surprisingly, home prices are holding steady. So, are we seeing the light at the end of the tunnel?
Here’s what the data—and my experience—tell us about what might be coming in 2025.
Inventory Is Growing (Finally)
The inventory story is one I know you’ve been watching closely. Right now, there are 690,000 single-family homes unsold across the U.S. That’s a 26% jump from last year and only 17% fewer than pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
Remember when mortgage rates were in the basement during the 2010s? We snatched up homes like they were limited-edition sneakers, and inventory kept shrinking. Then came the peak inventory crisis in January 2022. But with higher rates cooling demand over the last three years, inventory has started creeping back up.
Most of this growth is from weaker buyer demand rather than a surge of new sellers. In some states like Florida and Texas, we’re seeing inventory rise due to higher insurance costs, taxes, and climate risks. But for most of the country, it’s just that buyers are taking longer to make their move.
Sellers Are Back
New listings are trending up, with about 8% more sellers entering the market each week compared to last year. That’s a healthy sign for the market. More sellers mean more deals can happen, and that’s good news for everyone.
Think back to the pandemic boom: buyers flooded the market while sellers held back, creating a feeding frenzy. Now we’re in the post-pandemic phase where the market is evening out—more sellers, steady buyers, and longer time on the market.
Sales Are Picking Up
Here’s where it gets interesting: pending home sales are up about 10% each week over last year. That’s solid growth, even for December, when sales usually slow down.
Is this late-year momentum from buyers who’ve been waiting for election results to clear the air? Maybe. The bigger question is whether this momentum carries into spring. While we don’t expect a dramatic surge in buyers, even slight growth in sales can breathe new life into the market.
Home Prices Are Holding Strong
Let’s talk prices, because this is what everyone asks me about. Right now, the median price for a single-family home in the U.S. is $384,900. That’s a 5% increase over last year. And guess what? That’s normal.
Prices have been surprisingly resilient, even with weaker demand. As we head into 2025, I’m forecasting price growth to slow to around 3.5%, but don’t expect a big crash. If you’re waiting for prices to tank before jumping in, you might be waiting a while.
The Leading Indicators Look Stable
Here’s a tip from the trenches: watch the price reduction data. Right now, 38.4% of homes on the market have had a price cut. That’s not bad, considering the slow demand we’ve had all year.
Price cuts give us a preview of what’s to come, and right now, the signals are steady. No big corrections, no big surprises—just a market that’s stabilizing.
So, What’s the Verdict?
2025 looks like a year of steady, measured growth—not a breakout year, but not a bust either. For buyers and sellers, this might be the closest thing to a “normal” market we’ve had in years.
As a mortgage broker who’s been through the highs and lows, my advice is simple: stay informed, stay ready, and when the right opportunity comes, don’t hesitate. The market might not wait for you.
Ready to Make a Move?
Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or refinance, now’s the time to get your plan in place. Let’s strategize together to make sure you’re ready to win in 2025. Reach out today to schedule a quick call or drop me a message—I’m here to help you navigate this market like a pro.
Location
2020 Lomita Blvd,
Torrance, CA 90101
United States
Pages
Follow us
