Hey everyone,
Just wanted to jump in and give you a quick update on what’s going on with interest rates — because it’s been a week.
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ve probably noticed that rates have gone down, then up, then down again… and back up. We’re in a really volatile interest rate environment, and that’s creating a lot of anxiety for buyers, folks looking to refinance, and pretty much everyone trying to make smart moves right now.
So what’s actually going on?
The Underlying Data
Let’s start with what should be helping rates:
- Inflation is easing. CPI and PPI numbers came in lower than expected this week — which is good news.
- Oil prices are down, which helps keep overall inflation in check.
- The job market is softening — companies (including the government) are pulling back on hiring.
- Even Fed officials, like Neel Kashkari, are acknowledging that rents are coming down, which is a big deal for inflation data moving forward.
Put that all together and, in theory, it’s the recipe for lower interest rates:
- Cooling inflation
- Slower job growth
- Potential recession signals
- And easing consumer demand
This is exactly the type of environment where Treasuries typically rally and mortgage rates start to come down.
So Why Aren’t Rates Dropping?
Because the headline news is louder than the data right now.
Tariff talk, trade tension, and geopolitical noise are dominating the narrative. When markets hear “tariffs,” they think inflation risk. And that spooks the bond market, which pushes yields — and mortgage rates — higher.
It feels like all this economic data is being ignored, and instead, the market is reacting to uncertainty and worst-case headlines.
There is some hope, though — it looks like 70’s countries want to negotiate new trade terms before things escalate further. If we see some smart deals made, especially by the U.S., it could calm the markets and give the positive data a chance to shine through.
What Should You Do Right Now?
In a market like this, timing the bottom is impossible — but being prepared and strategic is everything.
- If you see a dip in rates and it works for your numbers — lock it in. Don’t play the rate guessing game.
- Work with a team that’s watching the market daily (
hey, that’s us). - Be ready to move quickly when opportunity knocks — because this level of volatility isn’t going away until we get some clarity on tariffs and trade.
- Keep in mind that when rates go up and down this fast it is very hard on lenders, banks and investors that offer loans to feel confident in pricing and their next moves. So expect them to sound and feel uncertain.
Bottom line: If it weren’t for the headline noise, we’d likely be in a much better spot with interest rates. But for now, hang tight, stay informed, and don’t go it alone.
As always, we’re here to help you navigate all of it — and we’ll let you know the moment the winds shift.
– Kenny
The Simpson Team